Real Estate Crash thread

[neufox47]

Yup, that's my thinking behind the lack of inventory, too. Lots of Boomers who are stuck underwater from HELOCs ten years ago, lots of reverse mortgages, and then a lot of others who won't move, which happens after a certain age. Slow decline. Twenty year event, plus. First boomer turned 65 on 01/01/11, last will pass 65 on 01/01/31. 73 million, 10,000 a day. Once the biggest spending generation, no longer. We're in it right now, a slow motion grind. Property tax issues are going to make things worse.

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

[Flyoverland Captive]

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

[bigdude2468]

I was just reading an article today that predicted a fairly strong recession by the 2nd quarter of 2019. Consequently they felt the FED will lower rates lower than ever before and do QE to the moon to try and kick the can down the road a few more years.
That would be great for my business and would support RE values.
We will see.[/QUOTE]

Tuesday morning on CNBC I heard a respected analyst predict the bull market would last another five years. Point being that these talking heads have no idea when the next recission occurs. Back during the housing crisis Mark Zandi who is Moody's chief of Economic analysis as early as 2006 claimed the housing crisis was near the bottom. He is trotted out on tv frequently, testifies to congress and get plenty of face time. I believe he claimed the bottom 17 different times. In a 2010 hearing he said he (Moody's) did not spot the problems with junk mortgages. I am no genius but no down payment & NINJA loans had my attention.

BTW what we are seeing in housing is some markets declining in part due to the limit on local property tax deductions. However other areas are increasing such as Florida with no no state income tax.

[Benny Profane]

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

There's plenty in Ct.. And I'm talking about second mortgages taken before the crash, sort of the same argument Ice is making about reverse mortgages, but, reversed.

[Name Redacted]

Some people run around saying that the sky is falling all the time, then when it does they say "I told you so". Other people know that the sky will fall someday, but still make hay while the sun shines while preparing for that rainy day.

[Jsun]

sweet soon I'll be able to buy some land and start my way to baronhood

isnt dirt in Alaska already pretty inexpensive?
Askin for a friend.

[Self Jupiter]

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

Rural America

[iceman]

I wonder if you could rent out a house that you have a reverse mortgage on? Get the mortgage money and the rent money and go live somewhere cheaper. Sorry Lindahl but you got me thinking. And I have an expensive house for sale that nothing's happening on.

[liv2ski]

I don't do reverse mortgages, as in principle I disagree with them, but I am certain they must be owner occupied.

[iceman]

Reverse mortgages can be a great deal if you live forever like I intend to.

[Name Redacted]

I don't do reverse mortgages, as in principle I disagree with them, but I am certain they must be owner occupied.

Yeah, I always assumed that they were just the bank's way of placing a bet on the owner kicking the bucket sooner than later, and as a homeowner, I guess that's a bet I wouldn't want to make until I'm pretty old. My wife's grandparents did one though and it seemed to really help when they moved into assisted living and end of life care but I don't know the details.

[Danno]

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

Atlantis?

[Dantheman]

Yeah, I always assumed that they were just the bank's way of placing a bet on the owner kicking the bucket sooner than later

IIRC, there are some ridiculous government guarantees in place that basically make it impossible for a bank to lose money on a reverse mortgage. 'Merica.

[Benny Profane]

Rural America

Not really. An awful lot of rural America never bubbled. But, if they HELOCed with a thity year in 06, they're effectively underwater, but have a really nice tractor.

[El Chupacabra]

Where do people with underwater homes live right now?

Atlantis?

I bet that is the name of a master planned community in some sprawling hell hole.

[Benny Profane]

IN Florida.

[Skistack]

Not really. An awful lot of rural America never bubbled. But, if they HELOCed with a thity year in 06, they're effectively underwater, but have a really nice tractor.

Most of middle America never bubbled. I'm in a nice suburb of a large Midwestern city. Bought in 2006, value declined 10% during the crash and is up 10% today.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah. Denver didn't bubble, either, but it is now. There's a habit now to talk about the RE market as though it's a national market, but 08 was the first time since the Depression that we saw such a widespread bubble and crash. Before that we experienced local booms and busts (hello, California, and the northeast has a bad one in the early 90s).

[406]

Grandma has been staying in my condo while watching the baby while wife and I are at work, planned to sell condo when baby starts daycare ~January. But just set up a meeting with redfin to list sooner...hopefully didn't miss the peak by too much. This will be my first not fsbo.

[shroom]

volatility has also increased exponentially; i think awareness (internet, hgtv) plays a huge part in that. i also think FUD/FOMO is at an all time high due to the same.

at the simplest level, i think people assume they’ll sell at or above the same level, and paying off the absolute value in $ as part of general financial planning over a timeline is not something considered with scrutiny, from either side of the transaction.

[rideit]

Local dynamics

https://buckrail.com/how-much-has-th...e1J2Go2FJ8czlE

[Benny Profane]

The Northeast gets fucked

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...paign=ritholtz

[liv2ski]

The Northeast gets fucked

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...paign=ritholtz

I have been waiting for this to have a huge negative impact in my hood. Sales are down, but have way further to go in my opinion.

Existing home sales have declined even more rapidly in the West than in the Northeast. But that seems to be more about high prices than the loss of the tax deduction. The West has by far the most expensive houses in the country, but California ranks 21st in per-capita property taxes, and the other populous Western states rank even lower. 1 Lots of affluent Californians will still be hit hard by the reduction in the state and local tax deduction, but it will be mostly because of no longer being able to deduct all of their state income taxes, so the impact on the housing market will be less direct.

[fastfred]

Unless someone gets in there and starts to reverse course
all this making america great again shit is going to really start having a negative impact by spring
but since a small group of older white male americans are feeling good about themselves it's going to be pretty hard to change things

[Elkhound Odin]

I’m feeling pretty good about this tax situation. I should come out in good shape since I stopped itemized deducts a couple years ago due to small mortgage


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